Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change. This, in turn, is exacting a significant toll in communities worldwide. While prediction skills are increasing with advances in numerical weather prediction and artificial intelligence tools, extreme weather still present challenges. More specifically, identifying the precursors of such extreme weather events and how these precursors may evolve under climate change remain unclear. In this paper, we propose to use post-hoc interpretability methods to construct relevance weather maps that show the key extreme-weather precursors identified by deep learning models. We then compare this machine view with existing domain knowledge to understand whether deep learning models identified patterns in data that may enrich our understanding of extreme-weather precursors. We finally bin these relevant maps into different multi-year time periods to understand the role that climate change is having on these precursors. The experiments are carried out on Indochina heatwaves, but the methodology can be readily extended to other extreme weather events worldwide.

The scientific method is the cornerstone of human progress across all branches of the natural and applied sciences, from understanding the human body to explaining how the universe works. The scientific method is based on identifying systematic rules or principles that describe the phenomenon of interest in a reproducible way that can be validated through experimental evidence. In the era of artificial intelligence (AI), there are discussions on how AI systems may discover new knowledge. We argue that, before the advent of artificial general intelligence, human complex reasoning for scientific discovery remains of vital importance. Yet, AI can be leveraged for scientific discovery via explainable AI. More specifically, knowing what data AI systems used to make decisions can be a point of contact with domain experts and scientists, that can lead to divergent or convergent views on a given scientific problem. Divergent views may spark further scientific investigations leading to new scientific knowledge. Convergent views may instead reassure that the AI system is operating within bounds deemed reasonable to humans. The latter point addresses the trustworthiness requirement that is indispensable for critical applications in the applied sciences, such as medicine.